Football thoughts, 2010

For the NFL playoffs last year I did a blind comparison of teams based on their win percentage compared to their strength of schedule (or opponents win percentage). That worked so well that I tried it again this year, using the same technique, here is how the teams stack up:

AFC


NFC


Stronger teams are toward the top right corner, weaker teams toward the bottom left corner, and the lines allow for a better comparison between teams. The teams this year are much closer together this year than last. So numerically how does the first round of games stack up?



The Packers show the most promise of winning with only 62% confidence (as opposed to several of last years games that were above 70%) and the Cowboys show a slight chance of moving to next week with only 54% confidence.

Again, nothing is being compared here except wins vs. strength of schedule. Things like Wes Welker's injury last week will probably have a pretty dramatic effect.

Building your own reality through creative polling

After seeing this article over at Think Progress I took a quick look at the data on Obama's approval rating throughout this year.



Note the trendline of Rasmussen stays a good 5 points below that of all other polls. The two never cross, nor do they even come close.

Statistically speaking, error in polls can never be eliminated, but it should not always err in the same direction. Somebody has a flawed polling model, either Rasmussen, or everybody else.


"Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts."
- Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan

Netflix Killed the Video Store

Jane's kid made a trip to Blockbuster recently... I didn't even know those stores were still around.

Turns out there must be a few, as the company is still publicly traded. Unfortunately for anyone that owns that stock, it has lost 80% of its value just since the beginning of 2007.




And that's not from the recession, Netflix stock has jumped nearly 90% over the same period.



Anyone remember back when Blockbuster was the new kid on the block, "changing all the rules" of home entertainment, and eating the lunch of all the small video rental stores? Guess karma can be a bitch even for corporations.

Facade Fail

The GOP realizes the demographic of old, white, men is getting smaller, and they are desperately trying to not promote that image of their party. Earlier this year they elected the first black RNC chairman, a great first step were it not for the fact that they nearly mutinied a month later on him.

This week they updated their website to show "GOP faces", as C&L pointed out, those faces seem to look more like a Democratic gathering. I grabbed screenshots of all the faces and it really does look like an inclusive party.



Now to good stuff, comparing this with the exit polls of voters for John McCain.



So white males are being downplayed and African Americans are being trumpeted. I'm not really surprised, just humored.

I'm betting the best part is still to come though, I'll give you 2-to-1 odds that this is going to piss off their base.

Science fail

Primary reason the GOP has annoyed me for the past decade - scientific ignorance. It's like a whole class of people that never took a science class past the 8th grade.

Note to Republican Party:

• Algebra is not the same as Calculus
• Physics is not the same as Biology
• Climatology is not the same as Meteorology

No wonder only 6% of scientists consider themselves Republicans.

Racists in the Republican Party

Saying the entire Republican party is racist is, as most generalizations are, completely unfair.

In truth, racists only comprise about 58% of the party.



Wow.

The Rangers Suck: part II

But they don't suck that bad this year. As promised, an update at the 100 game mark.

The string of losses near mid-season that we expect in a teaser year has not materialized...yet. Right now they are 3 games out of the division lead and 1-1/2 games out of the wild card slot. Here is this season compared with the other two best seasons of this decade.



Not the horrendous dropoff of a "Teaser" season, and they are making changes unlike a "Mediocre" season. Just 62 games left, can they hold it together (for once)?